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“The only thing necessary for these diseases to the triumph is for good people and governments to do nothing.”


Projecting the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

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Main topics can be found within the left column; sub-topics and/or research reports can be found near the bottom of this page.  Thank you


Various reports and math models that can be used to predict the impact of HIV/AIDS, these reports are from insurance companies and governmental agencies.

Document Name & Link to Document


File Size /pdf

A New Interpretation of Brass’ P/F Ratio Method Applicable when Fertility is Declining

In the original P/F ratio method formulated, children ever born data are used to adjust upward for under reporting numbers of births reported to have occurred during the year prior to a census or survey.

18 kb pdf

Age- & sex-structured HIV epidemiological  model. Presented is a novel model for forecasting HIV incidence by age and sex and among sentinel groups for which data are available.  This approach permits a closer relationship between forecasting and surveillance activities, and more accurate estimates validated to data. 1,265 kb pdf
AIDS and demographic consequences. (very large report-increase download time) In many countries AIDS is already a major cause of death, and it will soon become so in many others.  Particularly in countries of the less-developed regions, AIDS may have a visible demographic impact in both the short and long term that will affect the size of future population increments, the relative size of different age groups and family structures. 9,540 kb pdf
AIDS epidemic up date December 2005

 (Large report-increase download time)

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) has killed more than 25 million people since it was first recognized in 1981, making it one of the most destructive epidemics in recorded history. Despite recent,  improved access to antiretroviral treatment and care in many regions of the world, the AIDS epidemic  claimed 3.1 million [2.8­3.6 million] lives in 2005; more than half a million (570 000) were children.  The total number of people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reached its highest level: an estimated 40.3 million [36.7­45.3 million] people are now living with HIV. Close to 5 million people were newly infected with the virus in 2005. Pdf 4528 kb

Analysis of Children Ever Born Data for Post-Reproductive Age Women

Children ever born data for post-reproductive age women, if accurately reported, provide information on historical fertility trends that is often available from any other source

136 kb pdf

Barcelona Report on HIV prevalence and impact Power Point Presentation with several grafts and diagrams 820 kb

Computer model says vaccines and treatment both needed to turn tide of HIV

Projects the course of HIV and AIDS over 20 years in a population where there is a well-studied, large-scale heterosexual epidemic. Using a range of assumptions about the uptake and efficacy of medical interventions, it tests the idea that either treatment or partially effective vaccines could turn the tide of HIV in the Rakai District


Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS. The short-term forecasting of future AIDS cases has been attempted by statistical extrapolations of the observed curve of reported AIDS cases.  In areas where such reporting is very incomplete or has only recently started, extrapolation is not possible and an epidemiologically-based forecasting model has been developed to estimate the annual number of AIDS cases which may have occurred and to project the annual number and distribution of AIDS cases for up to ten years. 1,276 kb pdf


Excel models

247 kb

Indirect Estimation of period Parity Progression ratios from time series of Births distributed by Order

The data required consists of a time series of annual numbers of births distributed by birth order

24 kb pdf

Lexis Diagrams

Represent relationships between sets of persons and events, are a specialized, highly effective visual language, like any other language, require study and practice for effective use

66 kb pdf

Making HIV prevalence & AIDS estimates Power Point Presentation 1.964 kb

MDEM-1-Demographic and epidemiological models for projecting HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

Studies of the temporal relationship between HIV incidence and prevalence that will help inform the interpretation of prevalence data to infer patterns of incidence

15 kb pdf


It is not possible to involve standard epidemiological formulation directly for our discrete time model because the one year periods by which the model advances are far too long for the assumptions involved to hold

36 kb pdf


A Minimalist Demographic-Epidemiological Model for Projecting HIV/AIDS

3 kb pdf


The overall aim to develop and implement a model for projecting HIV/AIDS that is simple enough to work with data inputs which are either widely available or can be plausibly substituted by the use of default patterns from other populations

12 kb pdf

MDEM-5- A Bare Bones Model

A demographic component of the model developed in this chapter consists primarily of a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories into which members of a population may be classified and a set of parameters that specify birth rates, death rates and rates of movement between categories.

68 kb pdf

MDEM-6-Model Design

The model will be defined by 1) the information required to define the state of the population at any given point in time and 2) a dynamic that will generate the state of the population at any future point in time from information on the population at any past point in time

78 kb pdf

MDEM-7-Application to Uganda: Results

Initial aim is simply to obtain an approximate replica of the Uganda epidemic in the form of a model fitting

45 kb pdf


Prepared for the Meeting of the Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimates, Modeling and Projections, Geneva, 10-11, June 1999.


Multiple Decrement Theory

When vaccination was discovered in the eighteenth century contemporaries raised the question of the effect on the level of mortality of the elimination of smallpox as a cause of death. Since persons who would otherwise have dies of smallpox would evidently die of other causes, deaths due to other causes would increase

60 kb pdf

Notes on Census Editing

Census editing may be broadly defined as the process of scrutinizing of census data at various stages of processing for omission, inconsistencies and anomalies and taking appropriate action when any of these conditions is found

87 kb pdf

Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimated, Modeling and Projection-1999 Estimates of the number of people living with HIV and the burden of HIV-related sickness and death rely heavily on data generated by sentinel surveillance systems 28 kb pdf

The HIV/AIDS pandemic: Trends and Dynamics

Context_ Poverty, Global Population, Biodiversity, Environment, Civil Society

1,894 kb pdf

The Vincent-El Badry Method

In many past censuses enumerators have frequently omitted to record "0" for childless women, leaving the space on the census schedule blank or perhaps recording a dash. The census records will then show these women as having not responded to the question on number of children ever born (CEB), rather than as having no children.



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