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“The only thing necessary for these diseases to the triumph is for good people and governments to do nothing.”

Hepatitis: Math Models


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"In 27% of patients with mild chronic hepatitis C treated with interferon-alpha2b for 6 months, serum alanine aminotransferase levels permanently returned to normal and viral status remained negative. The model estimated that interferon-alpha2b treatment in this population should increase life expectancy by 3.1 years if given at 20 years of age, by 1.5 years at 35 years of age, and by 22 days at 70 years of age; discounted marginal cost-effectiveness ratios are $500, $1900, and $62 000 per year of life gained, respectively. Varying the long-term response rates and progression rates for mild and moderate chronic hepatitis to near zero in sensitivity analyses substantially affected the results: Ratios ranged from $31 000 for a 20-year-old patient to $640 000 for a 70-year-old patient." Annals of Internal Medicine Estimates of the Cost-Effectiveness of a Single Course of Interferon-alpha2b in Patients with Histologically Mild Chronic Hepatitis C Annals of Internal Medicine 15 November 1997

Modeling helps to determine the cost effectiveness of treatment and the overall success rate for treatment. They can also be used to given an estimate of the overall cost to society. Insurance companies (Actuaries) use such models in determining the rates at which customers are charged for their polices (life or health).



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Can the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Predict Post-Transplantation Can indicators of liver disease severity before liver transplantation (OLT) predict the outcome following OLT? Can pretransplant data predict post-OLT outcomes? The researchers compared three indices of liver disease severity as predictors of posttransplant outcome:  
Hepatitis C Virus-mortality New York New York State Department of Health epidemiologists recently reviewed and compiled the mortality and complication rates for hospital patients with hepatitis C (HepC) virus in Upstate New York.


Hepatitis C: The Facts, The Epidemic It is suspected that there are, at present, more than 5 million people in the United States that are infected with Hepatitis C, and perhaps as many as 200 million around the world. This makes it one of the greatest public health threats faced in this century, and perhaps one of the greatest threats to be faced in the next century.



Increase in mortality rates from intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in England and Wales 2001; 48:816-20 Doubling of deaths from liver cancer in last 30 years


Scientific Fraud and Conflict Of Interest In. In Business School, (Organizational Behavior) we studied what can happen to organizations that suffer ethical management breakdowns (such as Johns
Manville with asbestos, Owens Corning breast implants, etc.). Nothing illustrates the syndrome of management ethical failure more clearly than the
current scandal faced by Firestone and Ford.


Single Motive and Multi-Motive Processing This study considers the impact of behavioral commitment on the cognitive and affective processing of a persuasive message advocating influenza vaccination behaviors, and the resulting impact on the integration of information into attitudes, behavioral intention, and behavior


Statistical Methods in Psychology In the light of continuing debate over the applications of significance testing in psychology journals and following the publication of Cohen's (1994) article, the Board of Scientific Affairs (BSA) of the American Psychological Association (APA) convened a committee called the Task Force on Statistical Inference (TFSI) whose charge was "to elucidate some of the controversial issues surrounding applications of statistics including significance testing and its alternatives; alternative underlying models and data transformation; and newer methods made possible by powerful computers" (BSA, personal communication, February 28, 1996).


Use of Single Data Source Can Significantly Underestimate Hepatitis C Mortality Rates Power Point Presentation 86 kb pdf

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