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“The only thing necessary for these diseases to the triumph is for good people and governments to do nothing.”

    


 

Economic Consequences of HIV in Russia

The World Bank,
Russia Country Department
May 15, 2002

Slides for presentation of the economic model

The Economic Costs of HIV

Labor

·               Decline in participation rates

·               Decline in productivity

·               Decline in human capital

Investment and Capital

·               Increased consumption expenditures - less funds for investment

·               Lower propensity to safe - less investment

Fiscal Costs

·               Treatment

·               Prevention

HIV/AIDS in Russia

·               Russia is different

·               HIV transmitted through drug use

·               Population declines even without HIV

 


HIV/AIDS in Russia

Figure 2. Sources of HIV infection

 

Distribution of HIV-infected, registered by Dec.2001 by age
(at the time of registration) and sex

Age Distribution of HIV in Russia (end 2001), Male and Female

 

 


·               December 2000 - 86,000 registered cases

·               December 2001 - 177,000 registered cases

·               May 2002 - 194,000 registered cases

·               Multiplier determines the translation of registered cases into actual ones (based on the sample number of approx. 16.4%).

The Model

17 Input Parameters User Defined

9 Output Parameters

Optimistic Scenario

Pessimistic Scenario

 

Optimistic Scenario

Pessimistic Scenario

Population growth:

- 0.2%

0.7%

HIV transmission rate
(among drug users)

2

4

HIV transmission rate
(heterosexual contacts)

0.3

0.4

Growth rate for drug users:

5%

7%

Multiplier:

4

6

Results

Mortality and HIV Cases

·               High, preventive treatment necessary

Economic Impact

·               Accelerating, increasing output losses with decline in investment and human capital

Budgetary Costs

·               Treatment costs unsustainable at current prices

Policies to Reduce Economic Costs

·               Reducing rates of HIV transmission

·               Improvement in demography

·               Limiting Intravenous Drug Use