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Statistical Reports
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"The ASSA2000 model has been produced as
a suite of several versions. The lite version, like the
ASSA600 model before it, treats the population of the country
as one population. The full version models each of the four
population groups (Asian/Indian, black African, coloured and
white) separately at a national level, and aggregates to
produce results for the population as a whole. The provincial
version is the result of the aggregation of the application of
the full version of the model separately to each of the
provinces. It thus allows for geographic differences in the
spread of the epidemic. The ASSA AIDS Committee initially
delayed the release of the provincial version pending the
lifting of an embargo by the Department of Health on the
release (to the Committee) of the more detailed results of the
provincial antenatal surveys for 2000. When, after many
months, the Department seemed no nearer releasing the results,
despite having agreed to supply them to the Committee, the
Committee decided that the demand for the provincial version
necessitated that it be released despite the lack of
cooperation from the Department. The urban-rural version
allows for situations where there is significant migration
between two groups with significantly different prevalence
levels (e.g. urban and rural areas in some countries) in the
population. This version is currently under development but
will be released in the coming months.
This user's guide is intended for use with all four models.
The differences between the lite and full versions will be
noted in the text at relevant places. The approaches in the
provincial and urban-rural versions are described in section
6. A fuller description of the urban-rural version as well as
a note on how to go about fitting the model to a new country
will be made available at the time of release.
As the course of the disease progresses and more
information about it becomes available, the model structure
and base scenario will be further updated and future versions
of the model will be released." ASSA AIDS and
Demographic Models
ADDITIONAL ARTICLES:
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