2004 World Population Data Sheet

http://www.prb.org

The 2004 World Population Data Sheet has the most up-to-date demographic data and estimates for all the countries and major regions of the world. The rundown provides a look at regional and national contrasts in age structure, population growth, life expectancy, income, and other determinants that mark today's deep demographic divisions.

 

(August 2004) The starkly uneven pace of population growth between most developing and industrialized nations represents the world's major demographic fault line. Nearly 99 percent of all population increase takes place in poor countries, while population size is static or declining in the rich nations. Among the major industrialized nations, only the United States now has significant population growth.

As a consequence, by 2050 industrialized countries are projected to increase their population by merely 4 percent. In contrast, the population of developing countries is expected to expand by 55 percent. For example, Western European populations will shrink, while Western Asian nations are expected to gain about 186 million people by 2050. Overall, world population will likely reach 9.3 billion by mid-century.

"The demographic contrasts between Japan and Nigeria, two countries with roughly equal population sizes today, illustrate the differing challenges faced by rich and poor countries," said Carl Haub.

He also noted, "Clearly, Nigeria has millions of young people to educate and employ. Vast investments are needed to provide a higher quality of life for Nigeria's growing population, while Japan must find ways to take care of more and more retired people and still maintain an adequate workforce. Recent population slowing in Europe has created the impression that world population is well on the way to stability," Haub added. "But so many demographic anomalies exist that the future is uncertain."

The First Time Series of HIV/AIDS Estimates

For the first time, the United Nations has produced a time series for the country estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence. UNAIDS' country-level estimates are reworked every two years based on updated information from sentinel sites, where samples of groups such as patients at STD clinics and women at antenatal care clinics are tested for the disease; and from surveys and other research.

UNAIDS estimates that, globally, 1.1 percent of adults ages 15 to 49 were living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2003, up from 1.0 percent two years before. In sub-Saharan Africa, the estimates provide hope for that region, the world's hardest-hit. Prevalence declined from 7.6 percent to 7.5 percent over the 2001-2003 period.

Looking at the trend over that period, 14 African countries are estimated to have had a decline in their HIV/AIDS prevalence, led by Kenya and Uganda. In contrast, 24 African countries are believed to have shown either no decrease or a rise in HIV/AIDS prevalence.

UNAIDS estimates that about 2.9 million adults and children died of AIDS in 2003, and that the number of children orphaned by the disease rose from 11.5 million in 2001 to 15.0 million in 2003.

Top 15 HIV/AIDS Prevalence Countries (end 2003)

Africa Rank Country Percent of Population 1 Swaziland 38.8 2 Botswana 37.3 3 Lesotho 28.9 4 Zimbabwe 24.6 5 South Africa 21.5 6 Namibia 21.3 7 Zambia 16.5 8 Malawi 14.2 9 Central African Rep. 13.5 10 Mozambique 12.2 11 Tanzania 8.8 12 Gabon 8.1 13 Côte d'Ivoire 7.0 14 Cameroon 6.9 15 Kenya 6.7

Outside Africa Rank Country Percent of Population 1 Haiti 5.6 2 Trinidad and Tobago 3.2 3 Bahamas 3.0 4 Cambodia 2.6 5 Guyana 2.5 6 Belize 2.4 7 Honduras 1.8 8 Dominican Republic 1.7 8 Suriname 1.7 10 Thailand 1.5 10 Barbados 1.5 12 Ukraine 1.4 13 Myanmar 1.2 14 Jamaica 1.2 15 Estonia 1.1

The World's 10 Largest Countries

Three of the world's 10 most populous countries in 2004 are the United States, Russia, and Japan. By 2050, only one, the United States, is expected to remain in that top 10 list.

World's Largest Countries, 2004 Rank Country Population (millions) 1 China 1,300 2 India 1,087 3 United States 294 4 Indonesia 219 5 Brazil 179 6 Pakistan 159 7 Russia 144 8 Bangladesh 141 9 Nigeria 137 10 Japan 128

World's Largest Countries, 2050 Rank Country Population (millions) 1 India 1,628 2 China 1,437 3 United States 420 4 Indonesia 308 5 Nigeria 307 6 Pakistan 295 7 Bangladesh 280 8 Brazil 221 9 Congo, Dem. Rep. of 181 10 Ethiopia 173