future hepatitis C morbidity,
and costs in the United States
Journal of Public Health, Vol 90, Issue 10 1562-1569,
Copyright © 2000 by
Public Health Association
Wong, GM McQuillan, JG McHutchison and T Poynard
of Medicine, New England Medical Center, Tupper Research
Institute, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Mass.,
OBJECTIVES: This study estimated
future morbidity, mortality, and costs resulting from
hepatitis C virus (Hepatitis C Virus).
METHODS: We used a computer cohort
simulation of the natural history of Hepatitis C Virus in the US population.
RESULTS: From the year 2010
through 2019, our model projected 165,900 deaths from chronic
liver disease, 27,200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma,
and $10.7 billion in direct medical expenditures for Hepatitis C Virus.
During this period, Hepatitis C Virus may lead to 720,700 years of
decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and to
the loss of 1.83 million years of life in those younger than
65 at a
societal cost of $21.3 and $54.2 billion,
respectively. In sensitivity analysis, these estimates
depended on (1) whether patients with Hepatitis C Virus and normal
transaminase levels develop progressive liver disease, (2) the
extent of alcohol ingestion, and (3) the likelihood of dying
from other causes related to the route of Hepatitis C Virus acquisition.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm
prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections
and suggest that Hepatitis C Virus may lead to a substantial health and
economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.
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