Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity,

mortality, and costs in the United States

American Journal of Public Health, Vol 90, Issue 10 1562-1569, Copyright © 2000 by

American Public Health Association

JOURNAL ARTICLE

JB Wong, GM McQuillan, JG McHutchison and T Poynard

Department of Medicine, New England Medical Center, Tupper Research Institute, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Mass., USA.

jwong@lifespan.org

OBJECTIVES: This study estimated future morbidity, mortality, and costs resulting from hepatitis C virus (Hepatitis C Virus).

METHODS: We used a computer cohort simulation of the natural history of Hepatitis C Virus in the US population.

RESULTS: From the year 2010 through 2019, our model projected 165,900 deaths from chronic liver disease, 27,200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma, and $10.7 billion in direct medical expenditures for Hepatitis C Virus. During this period, Hepatitis C Virus may lead to 720,700 years of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and to the loss of 1.83 million years of life in those younger than 65 at a

societal cost of $21.3 and $54.2 billion, respectively. In sensitivity analysis, these estimates depended on (1) whether patients with Hepatitis C Virus and normal transaminase levels develop progressive liver disease, (2) the extent of alcohol ingestion, and (3) the likelihood of dying from other causes related to the route of Hepatitis C Virus acquisition.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections and suggest that Hepatitis C Virus may lead to a substantial health and economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.

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